Smile, Baby, Smile

The crying baby smiled, even without that expensive, $700 billion lollipop.

Possibly the timely festivity of the Jewish New Year is one cause for smile. Or perhaps the most irrational exuberance on record yesterday must be undone of its unnecessary damage, thanks to bargain hunters and day traders who search for their fortune in a beaten down market.

Wall Street reminds me of the chaos theory. The butterfly effect results from a runaway, yet unpredictable, domino effect. Let's say, a newsworthy rumor mill crops up somewhere in the message board and gets snowballing in a few hours or days. If more stakeholders subscribe to the veracity of the news, then a certain stock will trend up or down, depending on the nature of the news. If more and more people get a panic attack and start unloading their shares once tightly clutched to their chest, then it becomes a self-fulfilling prophecy: the price continues its free fall indeed. One may ask, Is this justified by the fundamental of the stock or the overall health of the economy? It is justified most of the time for certain stocks, sometimes for all stocks, but never for all stocks at the same time.

Is now the time for panic selling? Most pundits would say no. The reason is simple. Panic selling is always self-fulfilling and self-destructive. It initiates a chain reaction that implodes. In the end, it drives a company and its shares to obscurity or even dustbin.

It is safe to assume that many companies are valuable and worth investing. All value-inflated or deflated stocks require corrections from time to time. A stock market crash is hardly justified, unless most listed companies are grossly overvalued. The trouble is, value is in the eyes of the beholders. That leaves ample room for chaotic trading, especially when people get edgy and irrational.

So stay cool, baby. Grow up and smile often. Do not wait for the lollipop.